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Fresh Multi-Week Highs In USD/CNH Amid On-going Equity/Recovery Concerns

ASIA FX

USD/Asia pairs are mostly higher, particularly in terms of USD/CNH and USD/KRW, with both currencies weighed by on-going equity market weakness. USD/CNH is not too far off the 6.9200 level. PHP has been the only notable outperformer. Tomorrow's data calendar delivers South Korean consumer confidence, Thai customs trade data and Singapore IP. Indonesian markets also return from a 5-day break.

  • USD/CNH's early down move ran out of steam around 6.8950. From there it was a steady climb higher to 6.9200 and we sit just below this level currently. Onshore equities continue to weaken amid on-going geopolitical concerns with the US and fears over further fresh tech curbs. A report also noted the authorities were urgently looking at ways to boost consumption, according to a CSJ report. For USD/CNH focus is likely to rest on whether we can test the 200-day MA, which comes in just above 6.9500.
  • Much like USD/CNH, USD/KRW couldn't sustain early weakness. The pair is back to recent highs. The 1 month NDF did see some resistance ahead of the 1335 level. We sit just below this level currently. Onshore equities slumped as the FSS Chair warned of overheating risks for the Kosdaq and too much borrowing. Q1 GDP was a touch above expectations but still showed y/y momentum slowing.
  • The Philippine currency is outperforming the rest of the region today. USD/PHP currently sits at 55.55/60 currently, around 0.30% firmer in PHP terms versus yesterday's closing levels. The pair now sits ~1.40% off highs from early last Thursday (56.385). Mid-April lows between 55.07/55.37 could now be targeted by the market. Comments from BSP Deputy Governor Dakila from late on Monday that the central bank sees PHP as broadly stable over the medium term have helped stabilize sentiment. The Deputy Governor added that economic managers see USD/PHP in a 53-57 range this year, which is down from 55-59 seen in December.
  • Malaysia markets have returned after a 4 day break. USD/MYR has pushed back towards 4.4500, after opening lower (sub 4.4200). USD/MYR bulls will target a break above this level, which would open a move towards the 200-day MA (around 4.4780), while bears need to see a break of the 100-day MA (4.4060/65) on the downside to turn the tide. Lower oil prices, relative to recent highs, and weaker CNH levels are weighing.

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