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Fresh Year-end CPI Forecast Expected Imminently

TURKEY
  • Focus turns to the CBRT’s inflation report due this morning. Markets will be on watch for any confirmation that the CBRT view is inline with Erdogan’s pledge that price pressures will ease from March onwards. The bank previously saw inflation dropping to 42.8% by year-end. Despite price rises expected to remain well above target, expectations for CBRT action remain minimal at this stage, keeping real rates in Turkey solidly in negative territory.
  • Dunya writes on the first returns of the government’s FX-protected deposit scheme, which are due from August onwards, marking six months since their inception. Given the rates are protected against FX fluctuations, the estimated interest on the accounts is 31.8% - with generous tax exemptions and extension of holding terms on top.
  • Elsewhere, Dunya write that exporters have found a backdoor method for handling foreign exchange, without falling foul of the CBRT and banking regulator’s latest measures. Instead of holding FX, the firms buy raw materials as a store of value, leading to increased Turkish goods exports and pushing the national trade deficit to record levels.
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