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MARKET TALK: Friday saw ING highlight 7 things learnt from the latest flow data:
- 1) Following dramatic EM outflows & price falls as Covid-19 unfolded, some
inflows have resumed in recent weeks. Most of this into hard currency products.
- 2) Retail still a seller of EM local FX, was biggest seller in Mar. Evidence
of flows back into Turkey/S Africa, but no clear evidence of Brazil inflow.
- 3) There was a classic elevation in default risk in high yield as economies
jumped to recessionary state, oil price collapse was an additional stress
- 4) However, fast forward to more recent weeks and there has been an implied
re-rating of prospects in high yield, and in particular in the USD space.
- 5) Too early to tell if sustainable, default risk elevated & will become more
acute beyond Sep when most of the Fed's support facilities are due to roll off.
- 6) There has been an increase in short duration govies & money market fund
holdings, and an increase in corporate holdings along the maturity spectrum.
- 7) Holdings of inflation linked bonds are well down.