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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
POLAND
- Back in early April, one of the major risks in Poland in addition to the third Covid19 wave was the FX-denominated mortgages case, which has been an issue for the banking system since GFC.
- While the market seems to have given less attention to the constantly postponed FX-loan case, a rising number of legal disputes with the EU has become investors' focus as Poland was given an August 16 ultimatum to comply with the EU court orders to halt a controversial regime to discipline judges.
- According to Bloomberg, The EU court decisions last week are part of two cases the commission has brought against Poland since 2019 over concerns a controversial disciplinary chamber would subject judges to political control. The EU's top court already last year ordered Poland to "immediately suspend" that regime, and in the second lawsuit last week ordered Poland to do the same again.
- The Polish court's decision to reject that order as unconstitutional has raised concerns that Warsaw will not abide by EU rules and laws, which is a core tenet of the bloc's membership and therefore questions the political trajectory of Poland.
- Even though the implied probability of 'Polexit' is still low, the uncertainty related to the legal disputes in addition to the super-dovish NBP could continue to weigh on the PLN in the short to medium term.
- USDPLN recently broke above an important LT downward trending support line; next key resistance stands at 4.00, which would bring us to the March-end highs (which was the high of the Covid19 'third-wave crisis').
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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