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Front-End DI Swaps Shift Lower Following BCB Minutes Dovish Tilt

BRAZIL
  • The front-end of the DI swaps curve has shifted moderately lower following the BCB minutes, with the acknowledgment of a potential cut being on the table in August bolstering market pricing for a small decrease to the Selic rate. Latest:
    • Bradesco Says Brazil to Start Easing With 25 bps Cut in August (BBG)
    • JPMorgan Now See Brazil central bank cutting rates in Aug. (25bps), prior Sept.
  • Despite a tiny blip higher for USDBRL at the open, the pair has slipped into the red once more and is trading at its recent lows. The move lower on Jun 9 resulted in a break of 4.8859, the May 15 low and this confirmed a range breakout and a resumption of the downtrend. The move lower narrows the gap with 4.7490, the Jun 6 2022 low and below here, attention is on 4.6910, the May 30 2022 low. On the upside, initial resistance at the 20-day EMA intersects at 4.8515.
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