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Front-End Swap Rates Decline As USDBRL Takes A Breather

BRAZIL
  • USDBRL continues to take a breather, consolidating below the 5.00 mark. The pause in optimism for the Real comes in tandem with more volatile sessions in rates, with front end yields in the local swap curve partially retracing the push higher seen in recent weeks.
  • Yields on DI contracts expiring in Jan '23 are potentially approaching pivot support around 6.85% (chart below). Despite the uptrend in front-end yields appearing to remain intact, yesterday's inflation gauge reading may have exacerbated the move seen in the past two sessions as markets look for signs that inflation may retrace in the short-term.
    • June IGP-M, an inflation gauge more tied to wholesale prices, came in at 0.6% m/m vs 1% est., 4.1% prior; stronger-than-expected CPI decline may reduce bets for stronger more front-loaded tightening from the central bank.
    • The June IPCA inflation readings are due to be released July 8th.

MNI/Bloomberg

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