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Front Rates Firm, Further Increasing Inversion

US EURODLR FUTURES
  • Eurodollars yields have continued to trend lower through the US session despite the e-mini S&P sitting flat and the Dallas Fed survey joining the Philly Fed in showing weaker than expected activity and with a particularly notable cooling in price and wage components.
  • Nevertheless, the largest increase of 7-7.5bps is seen in late whites/front reds but tail off with little change on the day in greens onwards, further increasing EDZ2/EDZ3 inversion to 74bps whilst EDZ2/EDH3 sticks to 20bps.
  • The moves are mirrored in hike expectations for near-term meetings, with 75bp still locked in for Wed (78bps) but firming thereafter with a cumulative 139bp for Sep (+3bps) and 182bp for Dec (+4bp) in only a slow clawing back of last week’s slide in FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied hikes.

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  • Eurodollars yields have continued to trend lower through the US session despite the e-mini S&P sitting flat and the Dallas Fed survey joining the Philly Fed in showing weaker than expected activity and with a particularly notable cooling in price and wage components.
  • Nevertheless, the largest increase of 7-7.5bps is seen in late whites/front reds but tail off with little change on the day in greens onwards, further increasing EDZ2/EDZ3 inversion to 74bps whilst EDZ2/EDH3 sticks to 20bps.
  • The moves are mirrored in hike expectations for near-term meetings, with 75bp still locked in for Wed (78bps) but firming thereafter with a cumulative 139bp for Sep (+3bps) and 182bp for Dec (+4bp) in only a slow clawing back of last week’s slide in FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied hikes.