Free Trial

Front Rates Help 2Y GoC Yields Hit New Cycle Highs

CANADA
  • Helping drive 2Y GoC yields to fresh highs, BAX yields have cranked 5.5bps higher for the Dec’22 and 8-8.5bps through most of 2023-1H24 on a continued re-pricing of rate hike expectations.
  • The Dec’22 implied yield comes close to new highs for the cycle and in doing so prices a full 10bp of additional hikes compared to after the Jul BoC’s surprise front-loaded 100bp hike (seeing an implied policy rate of circa 3.75%).
  • An even larger transformation since that meeting though has been the increase in yields further along the curve, with the Dec’23 37bps higher, which has helped trim BAZ2/BAZ3 inversion from a peak 75bp of cuts in late July to just over 30bps currently.
  • This trimming is susceptible to some reversal if US PMIs or the Richmond Fed manufacturing index disappoint tomorrow, with no local releases of note until Thursday.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.