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Pullback Considered Corrective


Corrective Cycle


Corrective Bounce


Short-Term Trend Needle Points South

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Front Yields Rise With Bullard/Williams

  • 2YY sit 2bp higher on the Bullard/Williams headline with OIS-implied terminal up 2bps at 5.01%, trimmed most recently on Williams noting “a number of downside risks to the outlook”.
  • Bullard reiterates seeing the need to get rates to the bottom end of a 5-7% range with markets underpricing the risk the Fed may be more aggressive. He sees a “a ways to go to get to restrictive” with potentially the need to keep rates higher through not just 2023 but also into 2024.
  • Williams’ speech typically more noted that further policy tightening will be needed to hit its 2% inflation goal and that “The labor market remains remarkably tight” but equally that “Tighter monetary policy has begun to cool demand and reduce inflationary pressures.”

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