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US TSYS/3Y: FTN Financial's Jim Vogel noted that "a West Coast fixed income
manager (Doubleline Capital's Jeffrey Gundlach on Bloomberg) "again warned about
'pricey' markets and said he would cap his firm's growth as a result. Actually,
many portfolios have effectively done the same thing already, except they are
staying well short of their duration targets and allowing them to drift still
shorter over time. Not keeping a constant duration is equivalent to shrinking a
bond portfolio. The defensive preference for less duration is one principal
reason shorter US Treasuries, such as the 3-yr, have tightened so much relative
to expectations for Fed policy while maturities out the curve - such as the 7-yr
- remain on the cheaper side of relative value versus the last four years.
- Vogel adds that "despite aggressive pricing on 3-yr risk, today's 3-yr UST
auction will go well as overseas investors look to add a bit more to their
dollar portfolios on the currency's summer decline. Look for an award around
1.535%" vs. the current 1.529% WI bid.