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Further Chipping Away At Can-US 2YY Differential

CANADA
  • GoCs have seen modest underperformance to Tsys today, more so at the front-end (2Y -0.4bps vs -1.3bps for Tsys).
  • They continue to chip away at the slide in Can-US differentials seen after another softer than expected collection of Canadian core CPI readings on Tuesday, with the partial reversal aided by the federal government Budget with its higher than expected program spending.
  • It sees 2Y Can-US differential at -73.5bps, off the -78.5bps it closed at on Tue but still below the -68bps seen before CPI.
  • Nearer-term, the strength of US data this week has seen BoC-dated OIS lift to show 15bp of cuts for the June meeting (first cut fully priced for July) whilst CORRA futures have 65bp of cuts for 2024 contracts vs the ~40bps of cuts in Fed Funds futures.
  • Monday brings input cost inflation before Wednesday’s retail sales for Feb/Mar advance and the minutes from the dovish-leaning Apr 10 BoC meeting.

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