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Further Lift In Can-US Yield Differential Supports CAD

CANADA
  • USDCAD at ~1.345 remains within yesterday’s range, with surprisingly little upward pressure from the S&P 500 e-mini pushing lower to extend yesterday’s second half losses.
  • Equity weakness is offset by crude oil pushing higher (+0.75%) and the Can-US 2Y yield differential pushing another 1bp higher (after yesterday’s +4.5bp) to -22bps for highs since early Oct.
  • CAD outperforms most high beta peers but lags GBP after stronger wage growth and less so EUR and USD.
  • Support is seen at 1.3413 (Feb 9 low) before a key short-term 1.3359 (Jan 31 low) whilst resistance is seen at the bull trigger of 1.3544 (Feb 5/6 high).
  • US CPI headlines. Beyond, pertinent FX option expiry is two-sided and only mid-size, with $734m at 1.3500 to the upside along with $550m at 1.3380 and $317m at 1.3350.

Source: Bloomberg

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