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Futures Extend Overnight Weakness In Early Tokyo Trade

JGBS

In early Tokyo trading, JGB futures extended their overnight losses, with JBM3 reaching 147.69, down 37 points from settlement levels. This drop comes ahead of the BoJ Monetary Policy Decision where no major changes in policy parameters are expected.

  • JGB futures have been trading within the range of 147.40-147.92 since early April, except for a few brief excursions outside these boundaries.
  • On the local data front, today’s activity data have surprised on the upside, following the release of higher-than-expected prints for headline and core Tokyo CPI. Retail Sales for March showed an increase of +0.6% M/M and +7.2% Y/Y versus expectations of +0.3% and +6.5%, while Industrial Production (preliminary) for March printed +0.8% M/M and -0.7% Y/Y compared to consensus estimates of +0.4% and -1.2%.
  • Cash JGBs are cheaper across the curve with yields flat to +2.5bp. The 7-year zone is the weakest, owing to downward pressure on JGB futures, with the 1-year zone the strongest. The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.9bp higher at 0.475%, below the BoJ's YCC limit of 0.50%.
  • Swaps curve bear steepens with swap spreads wider across the curve.
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