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Futures In A Holding Pattern Ahead Of Non-Farm Payrolls

US TSYS

TYM4 is trading at 108-10, -0-01+ from NY closing levels, near of the top of today’s relatively narrow Asia-Pac range. Today’s high remains below Thursday’s intra-session high. News flow has been light.

  • There has been no cash trading in Asia today with Japan out for observance of the Constitution Memorial Day holiday.
  • After shrugging yesterday’s higher-than-expected Unit Labor Costs and slightly lower than expected Initial Jobless Claims, the market’s focus has turned to Non-Farm Payrolls later today.
  • Bloomberg consensus sees nonfarm payrolls growth of 241k in April after another strong 303k in March. Markets will be mindful of household survey volatility but with continued focus on immigration-driven supply side strength, the u/e rate should help guide on broader labour market balance. At 3.83% in March, it doesn’t take much to move closer to the FOMC’s 4.0% end-2024 forecast.
  • AHE growth is seen settling in at 0.3% M/M pace again although a few analysts caution potential downside risks from calendar effects.
  • See MNI US Payrolls Preview: Fed Sensitive To An Unexpected, Meaningful Weakening here.
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