Futures Little Change After Friday’s Low Held Late On Monday

Gilt futures trade either side of late Monday levels, last printing essentially unchanged at 98.34.

• Friday’s low in the contract (98.21) held late on Monday.
• Zooming out, last week’s rally in gilt futures instilled a bullish theme, resulting in a print above the May 16 high (98.89). A clear break of this hurdle would reinforce bullish conditions. Conversely, initial firm support is seen at the 20-day EMA (97.45).
• Cash gilt yields are little changed to 1bp lower on the day.
• Overnight local headline flow won’t have been market moving, with political headwinds for PM Sunak and the Conservative Party still dominating.
• Labour’s tax policies continue to get plenty of airtime, with Shadow Chancellor Reeves providing background details on some of the more niche aspects of her party’s fiscal policy preferences.
• Kantar’s food price inflation metric moderated for a sixteenth consecutive month, printing +2.1% Y/Y, a welcome sign for policymakers.
• GBP4bn of 4.125% Jul-29 gilt supply is due today.
• Brightmine wage data will hit in the early hours of Wednesday morning.
• Further out, tomorrow’s CPI data and Thursday’s BoE decision headline this week’s UK schedule.