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Futures Probe This Week's Low

GILTS

Futures probe the week’s low after firmer-than-expected GDP data and yesterday’s hawkish BoE rhetoric.

  • More meaningful support comes in ~30 ticks below, at the July 4 low (97.32). Our technical analyst continues to highlight a short-term bearish theme, despite the recent rally.
  • Cash gilt yields 3.0-4.5bp higher across the curve, 10s lead the move.
  • SONIA futures are 1.0-4.5 lower, at/just off lows.
  • BoE-dated OIS shows 11bp of cuts through August and 44.5bp through year end. Contracts through mid-’25 are 1-3bp more hawkish on the day.
  • Impending U.S. CPI data presents the major risk event of the day.
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Futures probe the week’s low after firmer-than-expected GDP data and yesterday’s hawkish BoE rhetoric.

  • More meaningful support comes in ~30 ticks below, at the July 4 low (97.32). Our technical analyst continues to highlight a short-term bearish theme, despite the recent rally.
  • Cash gilt yields 3.0-4.5bp higher across the curve, 10s lead the move.
  • SONIA futures are 1.0-4.5 lower, at/just off lows.
  • BoE-dated OIS shows 11bp of cuts through August and 44.5bp through year end. Contracts through mid-’25 are 1-3bp more hawkish on the day.
  • Impending U.S. CPI data presents the major risk event of the day.