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FX and Bonds Dislocated, With Yields Higher But PLN Outperforming

POLAND
  • Bonds have come under pressure from the open - yields are higher by 15-20bps across the curve. Some dislocation between bonds and currencies as PLN recovers the entirety of the lost ground as missile strike looks confirmed as Ukrainian, while bonds still clearly carrying an extra risk premium. Front-end PLN implied vols have also been marked higher, showing market still remains somewhat nervous despite article 4 possibly not being necessary.
  • USDPLN is lower by close to 1.50% on the day as euro proxies outperform across the board. Similarly, EURPLN has fallen 85 pips from the intraday high of 4.7848 and is looking to test yesterday’s low of 4.6840. Price has recently cleared the 50-day EMA, with sights on 4.684 next, the Aug 15 low and key support.
  • Markets watching core CPI data at 1300GMT/1400 local time for direction.
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