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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessMNI EUROPEAN MARKETS ANALYSIS: ECB Expected To Cut Rates Later
MNI EUROPEAN OPEN: A$ & Local Yields Surge Following Jobs Data
G10 FX Subdued Ahead of July Payrolls Print
- Markets are generally treading water and respecting recent ranges ahead of the NFP print later today, with FX options markets pricing a relatively more muted response to today's payrolls release, with the vol premium added ahead of NFP among the lowest of the year so far.
- EUR/USD overnight vols peaked at 12.9 points yesterday, below the 2023 pre-NFP average of 15.5, and following the pattern of lower highs in implied vol ahead of payrolls across the year. Markets priced the largest swing in EUR/USD ahead of the January payrolls report (February 3rd) - with implied topping out at 19.8 points. Overnight straddle break-evens price a ~45 pip swing in EUR/USD for today's NY cut - notably lower than the ~70 pip average pricing of a pre-payrolls swing so far in 2023.
- CHF is the poorest performer so far in G10, trimming the week's risk-driven rally, while AUD and NZD regather after trading poorly since Monday. A lifting of Chinese Barley tariffs on Australian produce has helped the theme, with AUD/USD comfortably off the Thursday lows.
- The US payrolls release takes precedence going forward, with markets expecting 200k jobs added across July, keeping pace with the June figure. The unemployment rate is expected unchanged at 3.6%, after which attention turns to average hourly earnings. The Canadian jobs report is also due as well as a speech from BoE's Pill, set to be talking to agents from 1215BST/0715ET.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.