MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR Breaches Key Resistance
Price Signal Summary – EUR Breaches Key Resistance
- A sharp sell-off in the S&P E-Minis contract this week, reinforces a short-term bear threat. The contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle low yesterday - price has breached support at 5809.00, the Jan 13 low. The trend in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains bullish and Monday’s strong start to the week reinforces current conditions. However, the contract has traded in a volatile manner this week and pulled back from Monday’s high.
- EURUSD traded sharply higher Tuesday to a fresh short-term cycle high, and the pair is climbing again, today. This week’s gains have resulted in a clear breach of key short-term resistance at 1.0533, the Jan 27 high, marking a continuation of the reversal. A strong reversal in EURGBP from its recent lows undermines the recent bearish theme and - for now - highlights a possible short-term reversal. The cross has traded through the 20-day EMA and sights are on a key resistance around the 50-day EMA. Despite a bounce, AUDUSD continues to trade closer to its recent lows. Last week’s strong sell-off undermines a recent bullish theme. The pair is once again trading below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and the move down has exposed support at 0.6171.
- The recent pullback in Gold appears to be a correction. The move through the 20-day EMA does signal scope for an extension towards the next important support around the 50-day EMA, at $2812.4. The current bearish trend condition in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s fresh short-term cycle lows reinforces current conditions. Recent weakness has resulted in a clear breach of support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low.
- Bund futures have gapped sharply lower today and price action is likely to remain volatile. The contract has pierced a key support at 129.41, the Feb 14 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Gilt futures have gapped lower and this undermines the recent bullish theme. Instead, the move down highlights a developing bear threat. A continuation lower would signal scope for a test of the next key short-term support.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Impulsive Rally
- RES 4: 1.0825 High Nov 7 2024
- RES 3: 1.0804 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.0728 High Nov 11 2024
- RES 1: 1.0689 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.0675 @ 08:36 GMT Mar 5
- SUP 1: 1.0529 High Feb 26 and a recent breakout level
- SUP 2: 1.0477 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level
- SUP 3: 1.0360 Low Feb 28
- SUP 4: 1.0317 Low Feb 12
EURUSD traded sharply higher Tuesday to a fresh short-term cycle high, and the pair is climbing again, today. This week’s gains have resulted in a clear breach of key short-term resistance at 1.0533, the Jan 27 high, marking a continuation of the reversal that started Feb 3. 1.0677, the 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg, has been pierced. Sights are on 1.0728 next. Initial key support to watch lies at 1.0447, the 50-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: 1.2990 High Nov 8 2024
- RES 3: 1.2924 61.8% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.2874 High Nov 12 ‘24
- RES 1: 1.2852 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.2839 @ 08:38 GMT Mar 5
- SUP 1: 1.2679 Low Mar 4
- SUP 2: 1.2595 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2554 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot support
- SUP 4: 1.2440 Low Feb 13
The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and Tuesday’s strong gains reinforce this theme. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed into a bull-mode position, highlighting a potentially stronger bull cycle. The pair is again trading higher, today, and sights are on a climb towards 1.2924, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2554, the 50-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Approaching the 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.8378 High Feb 6
- RES 3: 0.8357 50.0% retracement of the Jan 20 - Mar 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.8322 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.8313 Intraday hugh
- PRICE: 0.8308 @ 06:50 GMT Mar 5
- SUP 1: 0.8241 Low Mar 3 nd a near-term bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
- SUP 4: 0.8163 123.6% retracement of the Dec 19 - Jan 20 bull leg
A strong reversal in EURGBP from its recent lows undermines the recent bearish theme and - for now - highlights a possible short-term reversal. The cross has traded through the 20-day EMA and sights are on a key resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 0.8322. Clearance of this level is required to strengthen a bullish theme. On the downside, key short-term support and the bear trigger, has been defined at 0.8241, the Mar 3 low.
USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 154.80 High Dec 12 ‘24 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 152.72 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 151.30 High Mar 3 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 150.18 Intraday high
- PRICE: 149.66 @ 06:56 GMT Mar 5
- SUP 1: 148.10/01 Low MAr 4 / Low Oct 9 ‘24
- SUP 2: 146.80 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 146.95 61.8% retracement of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg
- SUP 4: 145.92 Low Oct 4 ‘24
USDJPY traded to a fresh cycle low Tuesday, but has recovered, and the pair is trading inside its recent range. The trend direction remains down and a resumption of weakness would pave the way for an extension towards 146.95, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key S/T resistance is 151.30, the Mar 3 high. Clearance of this level is required to signal a base.
EURJPY TECHS: Testing Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 161.50 High Jan 31
- RES 3: 161.19 High Feb 13 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 160.26 High Feb 14
- RES 1: 159.64 Intraday high
- PRICE: 159.54 @ 07:59 GMT Mar 5
- SUP 1: 157.98 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 155.60 Low Mar 4
- SUP 3: 154.80 Low Feb 28 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
This week’s strong rally in EURJPY undermines a recent bearish threat and instead highlights a possible reversal. The cross is holding on to its latest gains and is testing resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 159.52. A clear break of the EMA would strengthen a bull theme and expose the key resistance at 161.19, the Feb 13 high. Initial support to watch is 157.98, the 20-day EMA. Key support has been defined at 154.80, the Feb 28 low.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remain Present
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6304 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6269 @ 08:02 GMT Mar 5
- SUP 1: 0.6187 Low Mar 4
- SUP 2: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.6000 Round number support
Despite a bounce, AUDUSD continues to trade closer to its recent lows. Last week’s strong sell-off undermines a recent bullish theme. The pair is once again trading below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and the move down has exposed support at 0.6171, the Feb 4 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and suggest scope for a test of the bear trigger at 0.6088, the Feb 3 low. Initial resistance to watch is 0.6304, the 50-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4548 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- PRICE: 1.4410 @ 08:05 GMT Mar 5
- SUP 1: 1.4370/4300 Low Mar 3 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
The USDCAD correction / bull cycle that started Feb 14 remains in play for now and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Monday’s gains reinforce current conditions and sights are on a climb towards 1.4548, a Fibonacci retracement point. The short-term bear trigger has been defined at 1.4151, the Feb 14 low. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4300, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight an early reversal signal.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (M5) Key Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 132.80 High May 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 131.95 High Mar 4
- RES 1: 130.40/130.88 Low Feb 19 / Low Mar 3
- PRICE: 129.75 @ 05:53 GMT Mar 5
- SUP 1: 128.77 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 128.68 1.618 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 128.33 1.764 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 4: 128.00 Round number support
Bund futures have gapped sharply lower today and price action is likely to remain volatile. The contract has pierced a key support at 129.41, the Feb 14 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and pave the way for a move towards 128.68, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies on the continuation chart are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Resistance is at 130.40, the Feb 19 low.
BOBL TECHS: (M5) Pierces Support
- RES 4: 119.040 High Feb 28 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: 118.950 High Mar 3
- RES 2: 118.310 Low Mar 3
- RES 1: 118.090 Intraday high
- PRICE: 117.870 @ 08:40 GMT Mar 5
- SUP 1: 117.650 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 117.600 Round number support
- SUP 3: 117.490 2.00 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 117.318 2.236 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
Bobl futures are trading sharply lower this morning. The contract has gapped down and price action is likely to remain volatile near-term. A key short-term support at 117.850, the Feb 20 low, has been pierced. This undermines a recent bullish theme. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards the 117.600 handle. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 119.040, the Feb 28 high.
SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Gap Lower Highlights A Bearish Threat
- RES 4: 107.120 High Mar 4 and key resistance
- RES 3: 107.046 76.4% retracement of the Mar 4 - 5 sell-off
- RES 2: 107.000 61.8% retracement of the Mar 4 - 5 sell-off
- RES 1: 106.925 38.2% retracement of the Mar 4 - 5 sell-off
- PRICE: 106.885 @ 06:19 GMT Mar 4
- SUP 1: 106.805 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 106.790 Low Feb 21
- SUP 3: 106.735 Low Feb 19 and a key support
- SUP 4: 106.600 Round number support
Schatz futures have gapped lower today and this highlights a potential bear threat. The move down also undermines a recent bullish theme. A continuation lower would expose a key support at 106.735, the Feb 19 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and signal scope for a deeper sell-off. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 107.120, the Mar 4 high.
GILT TECHS: (M5) Gap Lower Exposes Key Support
- RES 4: 93.83 High Feb 6 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 93.79 High Mar 4
- RES 2: 93.06 Low Mar 4
- RES 1: 92.57 Low Mar 3
- PRICE: 92.29 @ 08:10 GMT Mar 5
- SUP 1: 92.12 Low Mar 3
- SUP 2: 91.79 Low Feb 20 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 92.27 1.236 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 90.97 1.382 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
Gilt futures have gapped lower and this undermines the recent bullish theme. Instead, the move down highlights a developing bear threat. A continuation lower would signal scope for a test of the next key short-term support at 91.79, the Feb 20 low. This level also represents a bear trigger and a break would open 91.27, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial resistance is at 92.57, the Mar 3 low.
BTP TECHS: (M5) Bearish Threat
- RES 4: 121.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 120.49 High Feb 7 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 120.12 High Mar 4
- RES 1: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- PRICE: 118.30 @ 07:19 Mar 5
- SUP 1: 118.21 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 117.66 76.4% retracement of the Jan 14 - Feb 7 bull leg
- SUP 3: 117.03 Low Jan 15
- SUP 4: 116.78 Low Jan 14 and a key support
BTP futures have gapped sharply lower today. This undermines a recent bullish theme and instead highlights a developing bear threat. Price is trading below a recent key support at 118.63, the Feb 19 low. A continuation down would pave the way for a move towards 117.66, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 119.31, the Mar 4 low and a gap high on the daily chart.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Bullish But Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 5611.50 2.500 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 ‘24 price swing
- RES 3: 5606.00 3.000 proj of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Jan 8 - 13 price swing
- RES 2: 5600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 5498.00 @ 07:02 GMT Mar 5
- SUP 1: 5373.00 Low Mar 4
- SUP 2: 5328.00 Low Feb 106
- SUP 3: 5281.53 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 5112.00 Low Feb 3 and a key support
The trend in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains bullish and Monday’s strong start to the week reinforces current conditions. However, the contract has traded in a volatile manner this week and pulled back from Monday’s high. Key S/T support at 5394.00, the Feb 28 low, has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards the 50-day EMA at 5281.53. For bulls, a resumption of the trend would open 5600.00.
E-MINI S&P: (H5) Double Top Reversal Threat
- RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 ‘24 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6166.50 High Jan 19
- RES 2: 6019.64 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 5884.00/5924.0 High Mar 4 / Low Feb 25
- PRICE: 5825.75 @ 07:12 GMT Mar 5
- SUP 1: 5744.00 Low Mar 4
- SUP 2: 5730.00 Low Sep 18 ‘24
- SUP 3: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 ‘24 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5658.00 Low Sep 12 ‘24
A sharp sell-off in the S&P E-Minis contract this week, reinforces a short-term bear threat. The contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle low yesterday - price has breached support at 5809.00, the Jan 13 low. This highlights a stronger reversal and a double top pattern on the daily scale. A resumption of weakness would open 5698.25, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is 6019.64, the 50-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (K5) Bear Cycle Intact
- RES 4: $79.98 - High Jan 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: $76.78 - High Feb 11 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: $74.36 - 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance
- RES 1: $71.92 Low Feb 26
- PRICE: $71.08 @ 07:02 GMT Mar 5
- SUP 1: $69.59 - Low Oct 29 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 2: $69.41 - Low Oct 1 ‘24
- SUP 3: $67.87 - Low Sep 9 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 4: $66.36 1.618 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
Brent futures remain in a clear downtrend and this week’s bearish price action reinforces current conditions. The sharp sell-off has resulted in a breach of a number of support points and price has delivered a print below the $70.00 handle. The move down maintains the bear price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on $69.59, the Oct 29 ‘24 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at $74.36, the 50-day EMA.
WTI TECHS: (J5) Heading South
- RES 4: $80.07 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- RES 3: $79.07 - 3.000 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- RES 2: $77.86 - High Jan 15 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $71.05/73.33 - 50-day EMA / High Feb 11 and key resistance
- PRICE: $68.03 @ 07:16 GMT Mar 5
- SUP 1: $66.77 - Low Mar 4
- SUP 2: $66.41 - Low Dec 6 ‘24
- SUP 3: $65.41 - Low Oct 29 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 4: $63.61 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
The current bearish trend condition in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s fresh short-term cycle lows reinforces current conditions. Recent weakness has resulted in a clear breach of support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jan 15 and has paved the way for an extension towards $66.41, the Dec 6 ‘24 low. Key short-term pivot resistance is seen at $71.05, the 50-day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Support At The 50-Day Is Intact For Now
- RES 4: $3000.0 - Psychological round number
- RES 3: $2972.0 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: $2962.2 - 2.00 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 1: $2930.1/2956.2 - High Feb 26 / 24 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $2918.5 @ 08:09 GMT Mar 5
- SUP 1: $2884.5/2832.7 - 20-day EMA / Low Feb 28
- SUP 2: $2812.4 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2758.3 - Low Jan 30
- SUP 4: $2730.6 - Low Jan 27
The recent pullback in Gold appears to be a correction. The move through the 20-day EMA does signal scope for an extension towards the next important support around the 50-day EMA, at $2812.4. However, this week’s gains are a positive development and potentially an early reversal signal. A stronger rally would refocus attention on the next objective at $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. This would also open the $3000.0 handle.
SILVER TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $32.484/33.397 - High Feb 25 / 14 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $32.324 @ 08:27 GMT Mar 5
- SUP 1: $31.432/30.815 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 28
- SUP 2: $30.691/29.704 - Low Feb 3 / Low Jan 27
- SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
Silver weakness last week resulted in a move through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The recent move down - for now - appears corrective, and this week’s gains reinforce this theme. A continuation higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at $33.397, the Feb 14 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend. On the downside, key support to watch lies at $31.432, the 50-day EMA, and $30.815, the Feb 28 low.