Gap Narrows, NZ First Looks Like Decider

A 1news/Verian poll is showing that Labour/Greens have increased their support only days from the October 14 election. New Zealanders vote on Saturday. Polls had already been suggesting that a new government will need NZ First as a partner to form a majority. Previously its leader Peters has said that he won’t join a coalition with Labour. PM Hipkins said he wouldn’t work with the party but in September said he’d “make that call” if needed.

• 1News is reporting that support for Labour has risen 2pp to 28% with the Greens up 1pp to 14%. The opposition Nationals are +1pp to 37% but its ally ACT is down 1pp to 9%, its lowest in over a year. NZ First is set to win 6% and Te Pati Maori 2%.
• If these results are repeated on election day, then the centre-right Nationals/ACT would have 58 seats in parliament and centre-left Labour/Greens/TPM 54 with the Greens winning a record 17. This leaves NZ First with 8 seats, which could bring either side into government if Peters is prepared to work with both.
• Preferred PM remains even with both PM Hipkins and National leader Luxon on 25%.
• The survey took place between October 7 and 10. 9% of those surveyed were undecided.
• See report here.