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Gas Balance Consistent with TTF & JKM Around 12$/mmbtu: Timera

NATURAL GAS

The fundamental gas balance is consistent with TTF & JKM prices around 20% higher than current levels at around 12$/mmbtu and with more volatility ahead according to Timera Energy global gas modelling.

  • A mild European winter has left a large storage inventory overhang pushing 2024 forward prices below 2025 levels.
  • The global balance has shifted since October due to a further decline in European power sector and residential & commercial demand expectations and declining coal & carbon price levels pulling down coal for gas switching levels.
  • There are some small reductions in LNG supply expectations in 2024 from NW Africa and the US while the US cargo cancellation response has fallen with Henry Hub prices.



Source: Timera Energy

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