Gas Drives April Headline Inflation Higher As Expected, But Core Dips

Spanish preliminary April HICP came in in line with expectations on the yearly rate at +3.4% Y/Y (vs 3.4% cons; 3.3% prior), but the sequential reading was slightly lower at +0.6% M/M (vs +0.7% cons; +1.4% prior). The national CPI came in slightly below expectations at +3.3% Y/Y (vs +3.4% Y/Y cons; +3.2% prior).

• Core CPI clearly undershot expectations, printing at +2.9% Y/Y (vs +3.2% cons; 3.3% prior): the 8th consecutive decline and the lowest value since January 2022.
• The headline rate was driven upward mainly by gas and food prices according to INE, which matches analyst expectations based on a VAT increase on gas from 10% to 21% which came into effect this month.
• The downside surprise on core CPI in particular may marginally bias downward expectations for tomorrow's Eurozone-wide inflation print.
• That said, the lack of detail in the report (particularly on services, though the report did note that leisure and culture prices "stand out" as downside contributors, potentially on a negative Easter effect) makes it difficult to draw many firm conclusions from a Eurozone-wide perspective.
• For context, Spain represents 11% of the Eurozone HICP basket in 2024.

MNI, INE