Gas Markets Gain With US Netbacks Back in Favour of LNG to Asia

European TTF gas prices are trading higher as the timing of any disruption to Australia LNG supplies could coincide with seasonal maintenance in Norway or the start of the winter heating season as Europe competes with Asia for LNG supplies.

• Front month TTF and Asian JKM prices are both up over 7% today with reports of delays to some Chevron LNG spot market cargo sales. Until now there has been no actual impact on physical LNG flows.
• The front month JKM-TTF spread is today back positive after falling as low as -2.6$/mmbtu last week amid surging TTF prices. The US netback to Asia for September was this morning estimated at 8.53$/mmbtu and back above the level to Europe at 7.87$/mmbtu according to Bloomberg.
• Any potential industrial action will occur in a phased manner and LNG buyers have not been notified of expected disruptions by their suppliers according to S&P Global.
• High gas storage levels above the five year average will help to offset some of any potential impact with stocks already approaching 90% full.
  • TTF SEP 23 up 7.3% at 36.94€/MWh
  • NBP SEP 23 up 7.7% at 93.48p/th
  • JKM Sep 23 up 8.7% at 12.43$/mmbtu
  • JKM-TTF Sep 23 up 0.7$/mmbtu at 0.84$/mmbtu
  • US Natgas SEP 23 up 0.5% at 2.81$/mmbtu