Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Closing Higher amid Volatility

TTF front month is set to close higher after a volatile session where it has ranged between 52.5 €/MWh and 49.425 €/MWh. Earlier gains were driven by reports that Israel’s military has entered northern Gaza. However, short-term mild weather, coupled with near-full storages, healthy LNG imports and robust Norwegian pipelines flows added downside pressure.

• TTF NOV 23 up 1.1% at 50.45€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 up 1.2% at 54.75€/MWh
• Israel may face difficulties to meet its natural gas export obligations in full due to the closure of the 10bcm/yr Tamar gas field and the EMG pipeline, even if output from the Karish field will be increased according to Argus Media.
• Temperatures in NW Europe have been revised up for the next week, before forecasts have been revised down lower with temperatures falling below the seasonal norm.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today up at 314.70mcm/d, compared with 302.4mcm/d yesterday. Troll and Oseberg output is still curbed.
• End of season injections into European natural gas storage continue to bring levels up to 99% full on 24 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 90%. Net injections have eased back this week and are now in line with the seasonal average. Net injections stood at 604.5GWh/d and 729GWh on Monday and Tuesday, respectively, in line with the average. European gas inventories are estimated to end the winter at 44% full, or 34bcm of gas, according to BNEF forecasts.
• ENERGY SECURITY: Estonia PM-We Don't Rule Anything Out On Balticconnector Damage:
• The European natural gas market is tight, and any incident could cause a price rise, Total CEO Patrick Pouyanne said at a teleconference reported by TASS.
• Azerbaijan needs buyers to commit to at least ten years in order to increase natural gas exports to Europe, Socar VP Elshad Nasirov said, cited by Interfax.
• Egypt’s LNG exports could be restricted this winter, tightening supply availability in Europe, according to IEA Gas Analyst Greg Molnar via LinkedIn.
• LNG flows to Northwest Europe were in line with the day before at 252.87mcm/d on 24 October, up by 52% from the 30-day moving average.
• Finland’s Inkoo LNG terminal will open revised winter booking slots on Friday to ensure stable supplies after the shutdown of the Balticconnector pipeline, Gasgrid said.
• North Asian physical spot LNG physical prices are around the $18/MMBtu mark, according to Bloomberg, as geopolitical tensions from the Middle East add a risk premium. This is despite a flurry of offers in the region for December deliveries.
• Pakistan is planning to buy two LNG cargoes in January to meet increasing demand in the winter, Pakistan’s Energy Minister Muhammed Ali said, cited by Bloomberg.
• Eni signed an agreement with Indonesia’s Merakes LNG to buy 0.8bcm/yr of LNG starting from January, the firm said in a statement.