Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Heads for Losses

TTF front month is currently on track for a 3.7% decline since the start of the week, as bearish short-term fundamentals outweigh potential winter risks, amid little sign of a significant cold spell in NW Europe.

• TTF DEC 23 down -1.9% at 44.98€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -2% at 46.55€/MWh
• Temperatures in NW Europe are expected to move above normal over this weekend before falling back to near normal during next week. The forecast shows little sign of significant cold with the last week of the month also expected near to normal.
• Norwegian pipeline supply to Europe is unchanged at 339.3mcm/d today compared to an average of 328mcm/d so far this month.
• European natural gas storage is still up near capacity at 99.36% full on Nov 15 after small withdrawals on the day according to GIE data and compared to the five year average of 89.1%.
• Bulgaria may in March end the EU exemption allowing it to continue receiving Russian oil, bringing them in line with other nations in the bloc.
• Northwest Europe has already received 44 LNG cargoes this month with another 27 expected before the end of the month according to Bloomberg ship tracking data.
• Chinese domestic LNG inventories stood at 413,000 tonnes as of last week, down from 414.400 tons the week prior, a survey by OilChem showed.
• The Asian LNG premium over Europe is increasing amid rising costs due to Panama Canal restrictions for mainly US suppliers.
• Energy Company Mexico Pacific and the government of the Mexican state of Chihuahua have entered into a strategic collaboration agreement to attract key financial investment to support the construction and operation of the Sierra Madre Pipeline.