Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Plummets

TTF is trading at the lowest closing level since Oct. 5, as milder weather limits demand while healthy supplies and storage managed any periods of cold temperatures.

• TTF JAN 24 down -6.1% at 36.25€/MWh
• Temperatures in NW and central Europe are forecast above normal throughout the coming two weeks although with a slight dip in temperatures in the middle of this week.
• European natural gas storage was down to 91.12% full on Dec 9 according to GIE data.
• Pipeline supplies into Europe from Norway are today at 347.2mcm/d compared to an average so far this month of 350mcm/d with a small outage at Dvalin.
• Algeria’s natural gas production is on track to rise 4bcm this year due to production from new fields, the Algerian Energy Minister Mohamed Arkab said, cited by Montel.
• Venezuela has begun contacting energy firms over an idled offshore gas project to begin new operations near Guyana’s border according to Reuters sources.
• European LNG sendout also eased lower late last week back to 412mcm/d on Dec 8 compared to a recent high of nearly 500mcm/d on Dec 5.
• Azerbaijan’s gas exports to Europe should reach about 12 billion cubic meters in 2023 according to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.
• LNG deliveries to Europe and Turkey rose more than 12% last week to nearly a ten month high of 4bcm according Montel citing Kpler ship-tracking data.
• A 1Q24 price forecast of 3.25$/mmbtu is proving to be too optimistic with clear risk of a revision lower according to a note from JP Morgan but the forecast currently remains unchanged amid uncertainty regarding 1Q24 weather.
• EU members states have the legal power to individually block Russian gas imports as part of a provisional deal agreed by the bloc on Friday.