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NATGAS: Gas Summary At European Close: TTF Rallies

NATGAS

TTF has rallied to its highest level since February 2023 today amidst risks of increased gas storage withdrawals this week owing to a forecast drop in temperatures. Increased Ukrainian imports are also supporting higher pricing. 

  • TTF MAR 25 up 4.6% at 58.3€/MWh
  • Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast near normal early this week before falling below normal towards the weekend while wind generation is also lower from the middle of this week.
  • European net gas storage withdrawals fell back below normal after strong levels seen much of last week. Storage has fallen to 49.02% full on Feb. 8, according to GIE, compared to the previous five year average of 57.1%.
  • European LNG sendout remains strong with flows to NW Europe at 268mcm/d on Feb. 8 compared to an average so far in February of 263mcm/d.
  • Europe’s gas storage injections could surge to 55 bcm this summer, according to IEA analyst Greg Molnár.
  • High TTF pricing may support gas-to-gasoil switching in Europe, Bloomberg reports.
  • At least two LNG vessels are waiting outside Belgium’s Zeebrugge to receive cargoes from Russia’s Yamal LNG as transshipments rise ahead of the EU ban, according to Bloomberg.
  • Ukraine continues to import higher levels of gas to support domestic demand this winter due to cold weather and damaged infrastructure, helping to add to TTF support.
  • Egypt’s purchase of 60 LNG cargoes from Shell and Total – around 4.3m mt in total - is set to be bullish for both JKM and NWE LNG, Platts said.
  • India’s top importers holding talks to buy more LNG from US suppliers, Bloomberg reports.
  • ADNOC has agreed to supply 2.5m tons of LNG to India's Bharat Petroleum Corp for five years starting from April, according to Reuters.
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TTF has rallied to its highest level since February 2023 today amidst risks of increased gas storage withdrawals this week owing to a forecast drop in temperatures. Increased Ukrainian imports are also supporting higher pricing. 

  • TTF MAR 25 up 4.6% at 58.3€/MWh
  • Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast near normal early this week before falling below normal towards the weekend while wind generation is also lower from the middle of this week.
  • European net gas storage withdrawals fell back below normal after strong levels seen much of last week. Storage has fallen to 49.02% full on Feb. 8, according to GIE, compared to the previous five year average of 57.1%.
  • European LNG sendout remains strong with flows to NW Europe at 268mcm/d on Feb. 8 compared to an average so far in February of 263mcm/d.
  • Europe’s gas storage injections could surge to 55 bcm this summer, according to IEA analyst Greg Molnár.
  • High TTF pricing may support gas-to-gasoil switching in Europe, Bloomberg reports.
  • At least two LNG vessels are waiting outside Belgium’s Zeebrugge to receive cargoes from Russia’s Yamal LNG as transshipments rise ahead of the EU ban, according to Bloomberg.
  • Ukraine continues to import higher levels of gas to support domestic demand this winter due to cold weather and damaged infrastructure, helping to add to TTF support.
  • Egypt’s purchase of 60 LNG cargoes from Shell and Total – around 4.3m mt in total - is set to be bullish for both JKM and NWE LNG, Platts said.
  • India’s top importers holding talks to buy more LNG from US suppliers, Bloomberg reports.
  • ADNOC has agreed to supply 2.5m tons of LNG to India's Bharat Petroleum Corp for five years starting from April, according to Reuters.