Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Recedes on Weaker Demand

Volatile TTF front retreated after regaining some earlier losses as warmer weather forecasts in Europe outweigh concerns that industrial action may restart at Chevron’s LNG facilities.

• TTF NOV 23 down -6.1% at 36.1€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -3.1% at 43.75€/MWh
• Weather forecasts show above normal temperatures across NW and central Europe in the coming week although suggests a cooling back just below normal from the middle of the month.
• The latest German gas demand data show, German natural gas consumption in September stood at 1.296TWh/d, down by 11.5% year on year and 26.6% below the 2018-2021 average, largely driven by lower consumption from small business and households.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated up to 283.5mcm/d today.
• European natural gas storage is up to 96.33% full on 3 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 87.94%.
• Germany must accelerate construction of gas import infrastructure to avoid supply squeezes, RWE CEO Markus Krebber said, reported by Reuters.
• Winter restocking spot demand for LNG among Asian buyers has been more tepid than last year, according to Argus Media.
• Kuwait expects its Durra gas field to be fully commissioned by 2029 according to Kuwait Petroleum executive – the field holds an estimated 20 trillion cubic feet of proven reserves.
• The Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said Thursday he plans to visit Israel in November to discuss the transit of gas to Europe through Turkey.
• Norway’s Petroleum Directorate authorized the start up of the Tommeliten A gas field in the North Sea that has an estimated output of 24mcm, the NPD said.
• LNG sendout to Europe was slightly lower at 294mcm/d on 3 Oct but still above levels seen in the second half of September.
• European Commission deputy director-general for energy, Matthew Baldwin says the EU has no plans to sanction imports of Russian LNG or pipeline gas according to Montel.
• EU and UK gas demand in September was the lowest in records from 2016-2023 and 21% below the 2017-2021 average due to mild weather across the continent according to ICIS.
• Lithuania’s Achema restarted its second ammonia unit at the Jonava site last week, which lifted the country’s gas consumption by more than 30% since the restart, the country’s energy agency said, according to Argus media.