Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Tracks Weekly Loss

Front month TTF is tracking a small weekly net decline, shrugging off gains from a Russian missile attack on a Ukrainian gas storage site earlier in the week, amid bearish short-term fundamentals and high end of season storage levels.

• TTF MAY 24 down 1.5% at 27.36€/MWh
• TTF Q3 24 down 1.2% at 27.85€/MWh
• Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast to remain above normal into April although the UK and Ireland could be more in line with normal. Stormier weather is expected in the early part of April but is expected to calm as the month goes on.
• German natural gas consumption last week fell 23.9% below the 2018-2021 average, down by 1.8% on the week, amid mild weather and ongoing lower industrial output, Bnetza data showed.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated slightly lower at 340.8mcm/d today amid unplanned process problems at Kollsnes. A planned outage at Karsto will reduce capacity by 19.6mcm/d from Apr. 1.
• European LNG sendout increased on the day to 362mcm/d on Mar. 26 but remains below the imports of around 415mcm/d seen this time last year.
• European gas storage was at 58.9% full on Mar. 26 according to GIE with above normal withdrawal rates in recent days. The seasonal five year average is 41.6% full.
• The German gas storage neutrality charge in place to recoup money spent purchasing strategic gas reserves has been extended to March 2027 according to Timera Energy.
• Europe’s gas outlook remains fragile due to constrained global LNG capacity, rising Asian LNG demand and ongoing geopolitical tensions, Snam CEO Stefano Venier told Montel.
• Egypt is looking to buy LNG cargoes as early as April through the summer to avoid fuel shortages but shipping disruptions in the Red Sea are posing challenges, sources told Bloomberg.