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Gasoil Spreads Edge Higher on Import Supply Risks

OIL PRODUCTS

Gasoil time spreads are slowly ticking higher today to the highest since 16 Feb but still only just above recent lows.

  • Spreads saw a declining trend from mid Jan to lows on 17 Feb suggesting that Europe is coping for supplies despite the Russian sanctions due to building stocks and mild weather. Diesel stocks were boosted significantly in Dec and Jan and have held up above normal so far in Feb with high refinery rates and import supplies from Middle East, US, and Asia.
  • Imports of diesel to Europe are expected marginally higher than Jan at about 1.55mbpd in Feb according to Vortexa.
  • The strong US refinery maintenance season and spring maintenance in Asia is helping provide some price support. FGE estimate 1.1mbpd of refining capacity will be offline in Asia from March to June. Runs are expected to fall from 31.1mbpd in Feb to 29.9mbod in June and expected to reduce Asia’s gasoil supply by more than 300kbpd to 10.5mbpd in Q2 2023.
    • Gasoil MAR 23 up 1.7% at 822$/mt
    • Gasoil MAR 23-APR 23 up 2$/mt at 9$/mt
    • Gasoil JUN 23-DEC 23 up 3.5$/mt at 29$/mt
    • Gasoil DEC 23-DEC 24 down -2.25$/mt at 34.75$/mt


Source: Bloomberg

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