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Market News Topics
June 13, 2024 10:46 GMT
GBP Remains Buoyant as Labour Manifesto Details Emerging
UK
- Most recent CFTC data indicated that GBP net length is the largest across G10 at 16.1% of open interest, supported throughout the year by expectations for a first cut from the BOE continuing to be pushed back this year, now seen in November. Labour market and GDP data has done little to move the dial this week ahead of the June 20 BOE decision.
- Despite potential risks surrounding the July 04 election and the impacts on the UK economy from a Labour majority, the currency continues to trade in a buoyant manner, only outperformed by the Norwegian Krone against the greenback in the last six months.
- Having closed below the 0.8500 mark for the first time since August 2022 last Friday, EURGBP has spent the week consolidating below support at 0.8484, the May 29 low and bear trigger. Initial downside pressure saw the cross narrow the gap with initial support at 0.8408, however, price has since settled around 0.8450. A bearish dynamic remains firmly in play and a more significant target is found at 0.8340. Resistance moves down to 0.8499, the 20-day EMA.
- Bullish conditions remain firmly in place for GBPJPY. After closing back above the psychological 200 mark earlier this week, the pair has been consistently edging higher and eating into the steep declines seen back in 2008.
- It is also worth highlighting that alongside the BOE decision on June 20, the Swiss National Bank will also decide on rates, having become the first major central bank to cut rates earlier this year. Recent hawkish remarks from SNB’s Jordan have tempered expectations for another cut from the SNB and GBPCHF has dipped in sympathy.
- Medium-term trend conditions in GBPCHF remain bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up highlighting a dominant uptrend and the recent pullback appears to be a correction. However, the latest consolidation appears to be a bear flag - a continuation pattern - and if correct, suggests scope for a deeper short-term retracement.
- A break below 1.1362, the Jun 5 low would open 1.1320, the May 9 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and expose 1.1171, the Apr 19 low and a key support. Key resistance has been defined at 1.1678, the May 27 high. A break of this level would resume the uptrend.
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Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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