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Lula Reasserts Responsible Fiscal Pledge


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CABLE: GBP/USD has been range-bound, last deals -5 pips at $1.3074. It managed
to break above the trendline resistance drawn off the Dec 13 YtD peak, which
kicks in at $1.3071 today.
- Thursday saw cable extend its recent move away from the 2020 low printed on
Tuesday. There seemed to be no headlines or data underpinning the move, which
prompted speculation of short covering. The move coincided with a slight
pullback from highs in the pricing for a BoE rate cut this month.
- Implied probability of a cut at the next meeting is now at ~61%, still
substantially higher than the ~23% seen last Friday.
- Bulls look for a jump above the Jan 9 high of $1.3124 before turning focus to
the Jan 7 peak at $1.3212. Bears keep an eye on the 50-DMA, which today kicks in
at $1.3035 and limited losses yesterday. Below opens $1.2955, the Jan 14 trough.
- UK retail sales data for December is due later today.

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