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GDP Doesn’t Change Analyst Views With Inflation In Driving Seat

CANADA
  • BMO: The economy clearly lost momentum as Q1 progressed, even as employment continued to roll along, and the sturdy advance was weather-aided and does not look sustainable. The public sector strike heightens the odds that Q2 will post a small decline. The BoC is expected to remain on hold, assuming inflation continues to recede and notwithstanding their tough talk on the possibility of further rate hikes.
  • CIBC: The weak end to Q1, combined with the negative but temporary impact of the public sector strike on Q2 GDP, increases the risk of a contraction in economic activity during Q2 although the BoC will look through that volatility. While a weakening economy should prevent policymakers pulling the trigger on another interest rate hike, we don’t see cuts forthcoming until early next year.
  • Scotia: Canada’s economy grew a touch in February but retreated a touch in March for an overall decent quarter of front-loaded growth that offers a neutral hand-off to Q2 GDP. The BoC is unlikely to be fussed with the focus remaining upon inflation’s broad drivers.
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