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TURKEY: GDP Expands 3.0% Y/Y in 4Q, Above Analyst Expectations

TURKEY
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  • Turkey’s GDP rose 3.0% y/y (Est: +2.5%) in 4Q versus a revised +2.2% in 3Q, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute. On a quarterly basis, GDP rose 1.7% q/q (Est: +1.5%) compared to a revised -0.1% prior, tipping the economy out of a technical recession. Meanwhile, Turkey's adjusted unemployment rate was 8.4% in January, marginally lower to the 8.5% recorded in December.
  • Citing “experts” who have evaluated the potential impact of US President Donald Trump’s 25% customs duty on EU products, Ekonomi say the most important risk for Turkey is loss of exports due to a contraction in the EU. They therefore note the importance of updating the Customs Union agreement as soon as possible.
  • Turkish Exporters Assembly Chairman Mustafa Gultepe says the widening gap between inflation and exchange rate is slowing down exporters’ speed, Ekonomi report. “In an environment where inputs such as energy and labor are constantly rising, there is no chance of sustaining the economy with fixed output,” Gultepe says.
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  • Turkey’s GDP rose 3.0% y/y (Est: +2.5%) in 4Q versus a revised +2.2% in 3Q, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute. On a quarterly basis, GDP rose 1.7% q/q (Est: +1.5%) compared to a revised -0.1% prior, tipping the economy out of a technical recession. Meanwhile, Turkey's adjusted unemployment rate was 8.4% in January, marginally lower to the 8.5% recorded in December.
  • Citing “experts” who have evaluated the potential impact of US President Donald Trump’s 25% customs duty on EU products, Ekonomi say the most important risk for Turkey is loss of exports due to a contraction in the EU. They therefore note the importance of updating the Customs Union agreement as soon as possible.
  • Turkish Exporters Assembly Chairman Mustafa Gultepe says the widening gap between inflation and exchange rate is slowing down exporters’ speed, Ekonomi report. “In an environment where inputs such as energy and labor are constantly rising, there is no chance of sustaining the economy with fixed output,” Gultepe says.