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GDP Figures Could Be At Risk Of Upside Surprise


South Korea will report preliminary Q1 GDP figures at the top of the hour, a booming electronics export sector is expected to pose upside risks to the 1.2% Y/Y estimate. Earlier in April when the BoK kept rates on hold the bank said it expected GDP to be above its 3% February forecast.

  • ING expects South Korea to have built on export strength last quarter: "Korea is the next Asian economy to have snapped the negative year-on-year GDP growth trend in the first quarter. We're looking for 1% YoY GDP growth after the contraction in the preceding three quarters (-1.2% YoY in 4Q20). Strong exports buoyed manufacturing, while multiple Covid-19 waves continued to hold back the recovery of services output. But even then, we think our growth forecast is at risk of more upside than downside surprise." The bank adds "Our Korean growth forecast is at risk of more upside than downside surprise."

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