GDP Growth Expected to Remain Robust, Despite Moderation Over Previous Quarter

GDP and GVA data for 4Q23 will be released at 12:00GMT (BBG consensus for GDP: +6.6% Y/Y; Prior: +7.6%)

• Morgan Stanley expect GDP growth to remain robust, even as it moderates to 6.5% Y/Y in Q4. They expect private consumption to pick up as depicted in high frequency data, driven by festive and holiday spending.
• Additionally, the growth trend in gross fixed capital formation is likely to remain steady at healthy levels, they say, whilst net exports are expected to improve as growth in imports slows.
• On the GVA front, Morgan Stanley expect growth at 6.4%. They note that industry is likely to lead growth across sectors while growth for services is likely to edge up. Meanwhile, growth in agriculture is likely to remain steady albeit at weak levels.
• They anticipate core GVA (a proxy for private sector demand) to remain healthy at 7.7%, reflecting resilience in consumer demand.