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GDP Preview – A Last Key Input Before March BoC Guidance [1/2]

CANADA DATA
  • Canadian real GDP for Q4 is released on Thu (Feb 29) and is the last major release that realistically can affect communication at the Mar 6 BoC decision -- labour productivity also on Mar 6 is obviously very important as well but lands just 75 minutes ahead of the announcement.
  • Expectations have been buoyed by the latest monthly Nov report (Jan 31) which saw a stronger than expected 0.2% M/M increase (cons 0.1) and importantly indicated a 0.3% increase for Dec. It was a break from five particularly weak months, with declines in Jun & Jul before three flat months.
  • BoC’s Macklem said the latest data were stronger than the Bank expected, and indeed the monthly series at least is tracking at 1.2% annualized vs the 0.0% the BoC forecast for Q4 expenditure GDP in the January MPR, but Macklem still sees growth remaining weak until mid-2024.
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