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GDP Q4 Beat Belies Weak Domestic Demand Details

US DATA
  • The real GDP beat for the Q4 advance (2.9% vs cons 2.6%) was much less flattening in the details, heavily boosted by changes in inventories swinging from -1.2 to +1.5pps.
  • Personal consumption confounded expectations of an acceleration as it eased from 2.3% to 2.1% (cons 2.9%) whilst the drag from private investment intensified from -0.6pps to -1.2pps, its largest since the pandemic - all seasonally adjusted annualized.
  • The investment hit came as non-residential investment almost paused after a strong Q3 whilst residential investment saw more of the same heavy declines (on its own dragging -1.3pps from quarterly GDP growth).
  • Tallying them up and final sales to domestic purchasers (aka final domestic demand) slowed from 1.5% to 0.8% annualized, whilst the private version of this measure of 0.2% annualized was the softest since the pandemic.
  • On the price side, core PCE was exactly in line with expectations at 3.9% annualized.

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