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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
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GDP Q4 Beat Belies Weak Domestic Demand Details
- The real GDP beat for the Q4 advance (2.9% vs cons 2.6%) was much less flattening in the details, heavily boosted by changes in inventories swinging from -1.2 to +1.5pps.
- Personal consumption confounded expectations of an acceleration as it eased from 2.3% to 2.1% (cons 2.9%) whilst the drag from private investment intensified from -0.6pps to -1.2pps, its largest since the pandemic - all seasonally adjusted annualized.
- The investment hit came as non-residential investment almost paused after a strong Q3 whilst residential investment saw more of the same heavy declines (on its own dragging -1.3pps from quarterly GDP growth).
- Tallying them up and final sales to domestic purchasers (aka final domestic demand) slowed from 1.5% to 0.8% annualized, whilst the private version of this measure of 0.2% annualized was the softest since the pandemic.
- On the price side, core PCE was exactly in line with expectations at 3.9% annualized.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.