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GDP Tops Forecast, AKP Prepping Groundwork for Pre-Election Policy

TURKEY
  • GDP data came in ahead of expectations across both the Y/Y and Q/Q release: Q2 growth rose to 2.1% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. 1.2%, Rev. 0.7%), while annual growth picked up to 7.6% vs. Exp. 7.4% (Prev. 7.3%, Rev. 7.5%).
  • Late yesterday, the CBRT again revised requirements for foreign currency holdings, with commercial banks now required to maintain a 10% conversion rate from FX accounts into TRY accounts. Any commercial banks that fall short of these requirements will now have to park an additional 5 percentage points of FX at the CBRT. The regulations are effective as of September 16th.
  • In a slight toward Greece and the US, Erdogan has accused Greece of using its Russian S-300 missile system to lock on the Turkish jets, openly questioning how NATO will respond to Russian weapon systems being used to lock-on to NATO-member aircraft. Erdogan used the supposed event to accuse the US of having issues with Turkey itself, rather than with the complexities of its defense systems.
  • Erdogan’s AKP party continue to talk down the prospect of early elections, claiming that “the election will be held at the time of the election”, however Dunya report that there is growing evidence that the government is preparing legislation on the economy that looks geared toward the lead-up to a nationwide vote. This legislation largely concerns credit forgiveness for those on the lowest incomes as well as young people and the farming community.
  • The government are also looking to establish a legal grounding for the so-called Price Stabilization Committee. After the committee’s presidential decree was annulled by the constitutional court, the government are looking to enshrine the committee in law, with proposals due to be presented to parliament in October.
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