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GDP Wrap From Those Not Already Looking For 50bp Hikes

CANADA
  • BMO: The surprisingly perky start to 2022 and strong advance reading for Feb boosts our Q1 GDP estimate from 2.5% to around 4% annualized.
  • CIBC: The strong start to the year potentially provides justification for a 50bp move in April, which could mean a year-end rate that is 25bp above our current 1.5% forecast. However, we still think that the rate path won’t be as steep as priced (2.5% by year-end), and still see a peak of 2.25% in 2023. The limited market reaction likely indicates increased sensitivity to downside surprises.
  • Desjardins: We see Q1 real GDP growth tracking close to 4%. Today’s release is not enough for us to change our call for a 25 basis point hike at the BoC’s April meeting.
  • TD: With growth set to accelerate in Feb, the BoC is now facing overshoots to both GDP and CPI projections from the January MPR. This will put more pressure on the BoC and while we continue to look for a 25bp hike in April, it does increase the risk of more aggressive action.
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