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Generali: 4Q23 Results Out 12-Mar, Expectations Already High

FINANCIALS

Generali (G IM) 4Q23 results due 12-Mar. Peers have generally done well with increased equity payouts but Generali pre-announced at its recent investor day. Generali’s cash curve has tightened significantly over the last month (over 20bp in places) so there are good expectations in place already, we feel.


  • These will be the first set of FY results under new IFRS 17/9 rules but 1H23 figures were digested without problem, so this should not surprise the market. 3Q23 results were good on operating results but there was a small Solvency II ratio miss (against consensus). This is always a key metric for the insurers.
  • The investor day on 30-Jan saw both an upgraded share buyback announced (EUR500m) but also an “M&A for growth” pronouncement from the management which can often be taken negatively by investors.
  • Peer results: Zurich’s were taken well with a larger-than-expected buyback announced. Axa similarly and upped equity payout to 75%. Allianz upped the dividend, but operating results disappointed the market.
  • The equity market has been very kind to Generali YTD (see graphic, best of the big 4) but all have been in favour as rate tailwinds have helped drive equity payouts higher.

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