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Geopolitical Jitters Linger, RBNZ Up This Week

NZD

NZD/USD sits at $0.6690, down 7 pips on the day, as the new week gets under way. The risk of escalation in the Russia/Ukraine crisis continues to undermine riskier assets, with NZD traders preparing for this week's central bank meeting.

  • Bears need a retreat under Feb 14/4 lows of $0.6593/90 before setting their sights on the recent cycle low of $0.6530 printed on Jan 28. Bulls look for a break above Feb 18/10 highs of $0.6730/33, which would shift focus to Jan 19 high of $0.6812.
  • The RBNZ will deliver their first monetary policy decision of 2022 on Wednesday after a three-month hiatus. Money markets fully price a 25bp hike to the OCR, with an outside chance of a 50bp rate rise.
  • On the data front, credit card spending (Wednesday), trade balance (Thursday) & retail sales (Friday) take focus from here.

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