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Free AccessGeopolitical Risk Aids Core FI, Short-End ACGBs Face Pressure From Jobs Data, Hawkish RBA Talk
Core FI futures have caught a fresh bid led by U.S. Tsys amid deteriorating geopolitical climate. With Russo-Ukrainian tensions still simmering in the background, North Korea has just dropped a hint that they might ditch a self-imposed moratorium on ICBM & nuclear weapons tests.
- T-Notes climbed to a session high of 127-20 before the rally lost steam, allowing the contract to tick away from best levels. TYH2 changes hands -0-05+ at 127-16 when this is being typed. Eurodollar futures trade 0.5-4.0 ticks through the reds. Cash U.S. Tsy yields last 0.4-1.9bp lower, edging away from session lows, with the curve running flatter. Weekly jobless claims, existing home sales & Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook take focus on the data front, while a 10-year Tsy auction headlines on the supply front.
- Strong labour market data applied some pressure to short-end ACGBs before core FI found poise again, albeit the . Australia's unemployment rate dropped to a 13-year low of 4.2% in December, but it must be added that the data were collected before the sharp increase in Covid-19 cases. Twist flattening remains evident in cash ACGB yield curve, with yields last seen +2.5bp to -0.5bp. YM sits -1.5 & XM +1.0, with bills running unch. to -2 ticks through the reds. Recall that Westpac circulated a note where they brought their RBA rate-hike call forward, which may have provided a further headwind for short-term ACGBs.
- Despite an early dip, JGB futures clawed back some losses and finished the morning session at 150.90, 2 ticks shy of last settlement. Cash JGB yield curve runs slightly steeper.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.