MNI BRIEF: Fed Risks Soft Landing If It Doesn’t Cut - Goolsbee

MNI BRIEF: EU Parliament Backs Von Der Leyen For 2nd Term

MNI: ECB LEAVES KEY DEPOSIT RATE UNCHANGED AT 3.75%

MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, July 18

MNI BRIEF: China To Upgrade Rural Land Reform: 3rd Plenum

MNI BRIEF: China's Third Plenum Eye's Deeper Financial Reform

MNI: FED BALANCE SHEET TOTAL ASSETS -$16B TO $7.208T IN WEEK

MNI: US TSY TICS NET FLOWS IN MAY +$15.8B

US Treasury Auction Calendar

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Geopolitical Risk Premia Coming Off a Low Base on Ukraine/Belarus Fears

RUSSIA
  • In terms of RUB weakness this morning and risk premia rising (5Y CDS +5bp), these fears seem overblow – given the lack of major troop and artillery movements on the Ukraine border and reflect geopolitical risk premia coming off a low base, rather than actual fears of an invasion.
  • Whilst we acknowledge that it's not 100% out of the realm of possibility, given previous history, we anticipate that this is more posturing similar to the previous episode of troop build-ups on the border in March that eventually dissipated.
  • Although Ukraine has been poking the bear along the line of contact with the LPR in the Donbass, we have not seen any majorly aggressive rhetoric from Russia in this regard with the dialogue still far from crossing Russia's red lines and focused on implementing the Minsk accords.
  • Although the West has shown increased support for Ukraine it remains along way from NATO membership – which is a clear red line for Russia.
  • On the Belarus front, the threats against gas supplies will need to be monitored and can broadly be interpreted as coming directly from Russia.
  • How far Putin presses on this front remains unclear, but our political risk team do not see a meaningful escalation turning into a proxy battle between the EU & Russia at this stage.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
Political Risk BulletEM BulletHomepageBulletPolitical RiskEmerging Market News
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
Political Risk BulletEM BulletHomepageBulletPolitical RiskEmerging Market News

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.