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POWER: German DA Widens Premium to France, Likely to Narrow for 23 Jan Delivery

POWER
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Germany continued to trade at a premium to France as expected by MNI in the previous session amid higher load factors of wind in the latter country compared to the former. Looking ahead, Germany could narrow its premium to France for 23 January delivery as forecasts suggest Germany's power demand to be around 7GW lower than France's and wind in the country also at a higher load factor.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €161.45/MWh from €168.46/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €146.95/MWh from €159.90/MWh on the previous day.
  • Germany was at a €14.50/MWh premium from a €8.56/MWh premium in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to rise to 11.64GW, or 18% load factor during base load on Wednesday, up from 8GW forecasted for Tuesday.
  • Wind is then expected at 27.29GW or 42% load factor the next day – likely weighing down delivery costs.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to decrease to 62.13GW on Wednesday, down from 62.42GW on Tuesday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecast to rise to 2.8C on Wednesday from 0.4C on Tuesday and slightly below the seasonal average of 2.9C.
  • Power demand is expected at 62.49GW on 23 January – likely keeping some upward pressure on prices.
  • In contrast, Wind output in France is forecast to rise to 5.04GW, or 26% load factor during base load on Wednesday, up from 3.36GW on Tuesday according to SpotRenewables.
  • French wind will then be at 7.25GW or a 36% load factor on 23 January.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to fall sharply to 71.73GW on Wednesday from 74.94GW on Tuesday as mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to rise to 6.1C on Wednesday from 1.8C on Tuesday and above the seasonal average of 4.2C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Power demand will then be at 69.95GW the next day.
  • Nuclear availability in France was stable at 92% of capacity as of Tuesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • EdF’s 1.62GW Flamanville 3 nuclear reactor is currently in test runs with 35MW of capacity until 24 January.
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Germany continued to trade at a premium to France as expected by MNI in the previous session amid higher load factors of wind in the latter country compared to the former. Looking ahead, Germany could narrow its premium to France for 23 January delivery as forecasts suggest Germany's power demand to be around 7GW lower than France's and wind in the country also at a higher load factor.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €161.45/MWh from €168.46/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €146.95/MWh from €159.90/MWh on the previous day.
  • Germany was at a €14.50/MWh premium from a €8.56/MWh premium in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to rise to 11.64GW, or 18% load factor during base load on Wednesday, up from 8GW forecasted for Tuesday.
  • Wind is then expected at 27.29GW or 42% load factor the next day – likely weighing down delivery costs.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to decrease to 62.13GW on Wednesday, down from 62.42GW on Tuesday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecast to rise to 2.8C on Wednesday from 0.4C on Tuesday and slightly below the seasonal average of 2.9C.
  • Power demand is expected at 62.49GW on 23 January – likely keeping some upward pressure on prices.
  • In contrast, Wind output in France is forecast to rise to 5.04GW, or 26% load factor during base load on Wednesday, up from 3.36GW on Tuesday according to SpotRenewables.
  • French wind will then be at 7.25GW or a 36% load factor on 23 January.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to fall sharply to 71.73GW on Wednesday from 74.94GW on Tuesday as mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to rise to 6.1C on Wednesday from 1.8C on Tuesday and above the seasonal average of 4.2C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Power demand will then be at 69.95GW the next day.
  • Nuclear availability in France was stable at 92% of capacity as of Tuesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • EdF’s 1.62GW Flamanville 3 nuclear reactor is currently in test runs with 35MW of capacity until 24 January.