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German Day-Ahead Clears at Highest in NWE

POWER

The German and French Day-ahead both increased on the day, with France rising faster amid lower nuclear availability, but Germany cleared at the highest price in NWE to only be below power cost in Poland. Combined wind and solar output in both countries are forecast to drop on 11 July from today, which may continue to support power prices.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €79.01/MWh from €77.69/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €67.98/MWh from €46.33/MWh on the previous day.
  • Germany hourly delivery prices were seen as high as €164.08/MWh for the 21-22 delivery hour, compared to an hourly high of €105/MWh in France for hour 20-21.
  • French power demand is forecasted at an average of around 44.9-45GW over 10-11 July compared to around 44GW forecast today. Demand is forecast to be between 44-45GW over Thursday-Friday.
  • Average temperatures in Paris were revised up by around 1.5C over 9-11 July to 19.5-23.5C, ECMWF shows. But are estimated to drop below the seasonal average of about 20C over 12-14 July.
  • Combined French wind and solar output are expected at 7.8GW, or a 20% load factor on 10 July, dropping to a 14% load factor the next day – possibly supporting power costs – and rising again to an 18% load factor on 12 July, according to spot renewables– which could also place downward pressure.
  • France’s nuclear reactors were operating at 68% of capacity on Tuesday morning – down by 2 percentage points from Monday. But generation is at around 38.13GW as of 11:00 BST just slightly below compared to the 5-year average of 41.37GW.
  • In contrast, combined German wind and solar output is expected at 20.3GW, or a 13% load factor on 10 July and dropping to around 9-11% load factors over 11-12 July.
  • German power demand is forecasted at 53.49GW on 10 July- practically unchanged from the demand forecast today.
  • But Germany’s 320MW Weisweiler F lignite coal plant will go offline later today, with the unit expected to return on 10 July, latest remit data show.
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