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POWER: German Losses May Pressure Nordic Power Futures

POWER
CEEMEAEnergy BulletsBulletPower BulletsSwedenNorwayCommodities

Nordic front-month power is expected to see downward pressure from EU gas and German power markets on Monday, once trading, while a downward revision in Norway’s hydro balance and cooler weather at the end of this week may offset those factors. 

  • Nordic Base Power JAN 25 closed up 4.5% at 51.95 EUR/MWh on 27 Dec.
  • Germany Base Power JAN 25 down 3.9% at 116 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 0.6% at 71.16 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas JAN 25 down 0.3% at 47.6 EUR/MWh
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised lower from Friday to end at 10.64TWh on 13 January.
  • Sweden's balance has been revised higher from Friday to end at 5.34TWh on 13 January.
  • Precipitation in the Nordic region is expected to be high on 1 January at 7.51mm after which precipitation is lower until 5 January. Rainfall is forecast to spike again on 6 January at 6.4mm, with less precipitation expected at the end of the forecast period – below the seasonal average.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF forecasts suggested mean temperatures have been revised down to fall well below normal from 2 January until 5 January after which temperatures will rise back up.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind output is forecast to decrease to 1.12GW on Tuesday during base load, down from 2.49GW forecasted for Monday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Nordic nuclear availability dropped to 81% of capacity on Monday morning, down from 86% on Friday.
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Nordic front-month power is expected to see downward pressure from EU gas and German power markets on Monday, once trading, while a downward revision in Norway’s hydro balance and cooler weather at the end of this week may offset those factors. 

  • Nordic Base Power JAN 25 closed up 4.5% at 51.95 EUR/MWh on 27 Dec.
  • Germany Base Power JAN 25 down 3.9% at 116 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 0.6% at 71.16 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas JAN 25 down 0.3% at 47.6 EUR/MWh
  • Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised lower from Friday to end at 10.64TWh on 13 January.
  • Sweden's balance has been revised higher from Friday to end at 5.34TWh on 13 January.
  • Precipitation in the Nordic region is expected to be high on 1 January at 7.51mm after which precipitation is lower until 5 January. Rainfall is forecast to spike again on 6 January at 6.4mm, with less precipitation expected at the end of the forecast period – below the seasonal average.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF forecasts suggested mean temperatures have been revised down to fall well below normal from 2 January until 5 January after which temperatures will rise back up.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind output is forecast to decrease to 1.12GW on Tuesday during base load, down from 2.49GW forecasted for Monday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Nordic nuclear availability dropped to 81% of capacity on Monday morning, down from 86% on Friday.