MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

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CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

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MNI: US NOV SUPERCORE CPI (CORE SERVICES EX-HOUSING) 0.342%

MNI: US NOV CPI UNROUNDED M/M 0.313%, CORE 0.308%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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German PPI & UK Retail Sales Allows Euribor To Move Away From Lows

STIR

The Euribor strip firmed following the lower-than-expected German PPI and soft UK retail sales data, to last print -0.5 to +1.0 vs yesterday's settlement levels.

  • ECB-dated OIS contracts continue to price around 137bps of rate cuts through 2024, with this morning's data doing little to counter the impetus from the hawkish signals from ECB-speak and UK/US data releases seen earlier in the week.
  • Bloomberg released its pre-ECB analyst survey, with the majority expecting the first 25bp ECB rate cut to have come by the end of the June meeting (in line with yesterday's Reuters survey).
  • Plenty of other details re: expectations surrounding wider ECB policy matters can be found within the survey.
  • The regional Eurozone data docket is light today, with markets looking ahead to US UoM inflation expectations and Fed-speak this afternoon. The ECB has entered its pre-meeting quiet period, though Lagarde will still appear on a panel discussing "Creating jobs for a new era" in Davos (wider monetary policy remarks are not expected).

Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Jan-243.905-0.20
Mar-243.858-5.0
Apr-243.718-19.0
Jun-243.422-48.5
Jul-243.163-74.4
Sep-242.913-99.4
Oct-242.720-118.7
Dec-242.532-137.5
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