POWER
The German 4Q 2024 power base load contract has widened its premium to the French equivalent to the highest since contract start today, as gains in natural gas market are supporting the German market, while French nuclear availability well above the seasonal norm is keeping a lid on French gains.
- France Power Qtr OCT 24 up 0.6% at 99.38 EUR/MWh
- Germany Power Qtr OCT 24 up 0.9% at 102.25 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 24 up 0.9% at 76.94 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas Ssn OCT 24 up 1.3% at 39.2 EUR/MWh
- German Q4 power base load is currently holding a €2.87/MWh premium to the French equivalent, exceeding the previous May 15 high of €2.62/MWh. German Q4 power moved to a premium to the French market on 24 April and has been holding onto a premium since.
- Front-curve gains amid recent increases in prices in the wider European energy complex have supported German power prices further out the curve.
- The increase in power prices on Wednesday is due to a “very bullish turn” in gas markets, Daniel Muir, analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said.
- Germany’s first winter without nuclear generation capacity, and dependency on global LNG flows has been supporting German 4Q power prices.
- The potential halt to Russian natural gas pipeline flows via Ukraine at the end of the year, however, are unlikely to further support German winter prices as the removal of Ukrainian natural gas transit and storage volumes would drive a manageable 13bcm EU gas balance deficit, comfortably above the 2017-21 average, according to ICIS.
- At the same time, high nuclear availability has weighed on the French power curve limiting upside for French winter contracts.
- Nuclear generation in France averaged 39.14GW so far this month, compared with the seasonal average of 35.6GW for 1-22 May.
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