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POWER: German Spot Index to Fall on Higher Wind

POWER
CEEMEAEurozoneEnergy BulletsGermanyBulletPower BulletsCommodities

The German spot index is expected to fall on Tuesday with forecasts for higher wind output and lower demand. 

  • Germany Base Power JAN 25 down 4.5% at 115.2 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 1.1% at 70.78 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas JAN 25 down 0.5% at 47.48 EUR/MWh
  • German Spark Spreads M1  down 90.9% at 0.5345 EUR/MWh
  • TTF front month is pulling back slightly on Monday but holding onto most gains seen last week as gas transit via Ukraine looks set to halt at year end. Putin said Thursday it would be impossible to arrange a new transit contract before year’s end, when the current agreement expires.
  • EU ETS December 2025 is pulling back on Monday with forecasts for windy weather in NW Europe for most of this week and additional downside from small losses in EU gas prices.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to rise to 29.6GW during base load on Tuesday, up from 28.65GW forecasted for Monday. Wind generation in Germany is expected to remain high until Friday, before easing back according to SpotRenewables.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Dusseldorf suggested mean temperatures t rise above normal briefly at the start of January before falling below normal until 5 January, when temperatures will rise back above the average until 9 January. Mean temperatures will fall below normal and below zero towards the end of the forecast period.
  • Mean temperatures in Dusseldorf are forecast to decline to 2.3C on Tuesday, down from 2.9C on Monday and below the seasonal normal of 3.6C.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to decrease to 52.42GW on Tuesday, down from 52.46GW on Monday according to Bloomberg.
  • Residual load in Germany is forecast to drop to 11.15GWh/h on Tuesday, down from 17.58GWh/h on Monday according to Reuters.
  • Germany’s hydro balance has been revised higher from Friday’s forecast to end at 439GWh on 13 January.
  • Maintenance at RWE’s 1.05GW Neurath F lignite-fired plant has been extended by three days until 31 December. 
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The German spot index is expected to fall on Tuesday with forecasts for higher wind output and lower demand. 

  • Germany Base Power JAN 25 down 4.5% at 115.2 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 1.1% at 70.78 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas JAN 25 down 0.5% at 47.48 EUR/MWh
  • German Spark Spreads M1  down 90.9% at 0.5345 EUR/MWh
  • TTF front month is pulling back slightly on Monday but holding onto most gains seen last week as gas transit via Ukraine looks set to halt at year end. Putin said Thursday it would be impossible to arrange a new transit contract before year’s end, when the current agreement expires.
  • EU ETS December 2025 is pulling back on Monday with forecasts for windy weather in NW Europe for most of this week and additional downside from small losses in EU gas prices.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to rise to 29.6GW during base load on Tuesday, up from 28.65GW forecasted for Monday. Wind generation in Germany is expected to remain high until Friday, before easing back according to SpotRenewables.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Dusseldorf suggested mean temperatures t rise above normal briefly at the start of January before falling below normal until 5 January, when temperatures will rise back above the average until 9 January. Mean temperatures will fall below normal and below zero towards the end of the forecast period.
  • Mean temperatures in Dusseldorf are forecast to decline to 2.3C on Tuesday, down from 2.9C on Monday and below the seasonal normal of 3.6C.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to decrease to 52.42GW on Tuesday, down from 52.46GW on Monday according to Bloomberg.
  • Residual load in Germany is forecast to drop to 11.15GWh/h on Tuesday, down from 17.58GWh/h on Monday according to Reuters.
  • Germany’s hydro balance has been revised higher from Friday’s forecast to end at 439GWh on 13 January.
  • Maintenance at RWE’s 1.05GW Neurath F lignite-fired plant has been extended by three days until 31 December.